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"Solar Cycle – It’s Here, Finally
Doug Biesecker, NOAA/SWPC
Solar cycle 24 threatened to fizzle out early, but late 2013 and early 2014 have brought renewed promise. There was an initial peak in February, 2012 but we now know that solar max will occur no earlier than September, 2013. This is consistent with the forecast that was made 5 years ago, or so I hope to show. In 2009, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel predicted that solar maximum would reach a peak of 90 in May, 2013. However, it is clear that anything the prediction got correct relied as much on luck as on forecasting skill. What is clear is that the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun are significantly out of phase. That the Southern hemisphere peaked at a higher sunspot number and later than the Northern hemisphere is the reason solar maximum is occurring now, and not in early 2012. We will also show how activity in this cycle stacks up against previous cycles and speculate on how the rest of the cycle will play out."
Questo è un grafico dell'attività solare degli ultimi 24 cicli solari, partendo dal 1755. L'attuale è la linea rossa, si tratta perciò di un ciclo piuttosto debole anche se lo scampato pericolo di due anni fa ci ricorda che il Sole può sempre riservare delle sorprese.
